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Eli Schragenheim presents
"Dealing with Common and Expected Uncertainty in Decision Making"
uncertainty, especially within organizations, has to make a clear
distinction between two different types of uncertainty. One is
defined as a state where a real disaster is possible, but with very
low probability. The other faces "common and expected
uncertainty”. The webinar would describe the current
common misunderstanding of the second type of uncertainty, in spite
of its huge economic impact on every organization. The
concept of "the reasonable range” would be presented and how it is
connected to the TOC notion of a "buffer”. These
concepts, coupled by some simple lessons from Statistics, are
translated into a decision-making process and it invokes even the
POOGI (process of ongoing improvement) concept to further improve
the way common and expected uncertainty is handled. The
webinar would demonstrate the generic solution in the known TOC
methodologies for S-DBR, distribution and CCPM and might show
further insights where different buffering schemes should be used.
About this series:
Being able to make good decisions is a requirement of any manager
and leader. In this series Eli Schragenheim (the other
Eli) wishes to think aloud on how TOC guides us to be better
decision makers. The most interesting question to be
dealt in the series is what "hard decisions” are and how to make
them "not-too-hard decisions”? There are two different
categories of causes for the difficulty to arrive to a clear
decision: complexity and uncertainty. Complexity is
nicely handled by TOC through focusing and outlining the cause and
effect relationships of the most critical elements. In
itself this is already a valuable addition to the work of Herbert
Simon, another influential figure on management.
Uncertainty is another element where TOC has provided certain
solutions for some specific cases, but, yet, does not provide a
generic way to systematically deal with uncertainty.