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Eli Webinar 4
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When: 02/19/2011
From 7:00 AM to 8:30 AM PST
Contact: TOC Admin

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Eli Schragenheim presents
"A direction of solution – a holistic process for high-level decisions based on Delta-T minus Delta-OE"

This webinar would present a possible direction of solution for the decisions defined in the third webinar.  It defines a holistic process of decision making, based on assessing the delta-profit, Delta T-Delta OE, which is the result from adding the required action(s) of the decision to the current state of the organization.  The process includes looking for the required information sources, how they can be supported by software, and how to deal with the inherent uncertainty.  This proposed direction also serves to demonstrate handling a combination of complex environment and uncertainty.  It should open a lot of questions and possible reservations of both the specific approach to the considered type of decisions, the application of treating uncertainty in such decision making process and the resulting change in organizational culture.

About this series:
Being able to make good decisions is a requirement of any manager and leader.  In this series Eli Schragenheim (the other Eli) wishes to think aloud on how TOC guides us to be better decision makers.  The most interesting question to be dealt in the series is what "hard decisions” are and how to make them "not-too-hard decisions”?  There are two different categories of causes for the difficulty to arrive to a clear decision: complexity and uncertainty.  Complexity is nicely handled by TOC through focusing and outlining the cause and effect relationships of the most critical elements.  In itself this is already a valuable addition to the work of Herbert Simon, another influential figure on management.  

Uncertainty is another element where TOC has provided certain solutions for some specific cases, but, yet, does not provide a generic way to systematically deal with uncertainty.